Saturday, March 29, 2008

And sometimes there's a river 8

Dear Danny,

In poker, the decisions you make are often based on statistics or odds. You know how many cards there are in the deck, how many are exposed and you calculate the odds of a card helping or hurting you coming out. Basic odds are 30% chances of a flush hitting, 7% of an Ace coming out, stuff like that. And you can say the same thing Pre Flop. So AK up against JJ, the Jacks are favored 55% to 45%. You take into account the over cards, the straight and flush possibilities, etc.

So in today's session of poker, I missed every flush draw. I only won one coin flip (the 50/50 ones) and was constantly losing to 3 outers, such as AK vs AQ I lost, KQ vs K10 I lost, that sort of stuff.

A lot of you think I overuse the poker metaphor, but it's never more pertinent in life than in this concept. There are odds, there are assumption we can make, but in the end, they're all just odds. All that matters is what cards hit. It doesn't matter that I was a 93% favorite, the 7% hit and that's that. It stings and it makes you wince, but the sign of a real poker player doesn't let it affect his composure. Have a short pain memory and tack one more up to the mean poker Gods.

Because I'm a firm believer that after every downward spiral, after every slump is a redeeming upswing. As long as you keep fighting and keep making the right moves. And keep on playing.

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